If we add this super-core inflation number, which is projected to be around 2.5% by the end of the year, and growth of about 2% (building in some downside risk), then US interest rates by the end of 2024 should be around one percentage point lower than their present 5.5%. Yet the Fed is set to deliver three (instead of four) quarter-point rate cuts, and officials have been expressing doubts as to whether last year’s disinflationary trend can continue.
While we understand the Fed’s political conundrum, that it can’t risk its credibility as an inflation-fighter, especially in a polarised election year, we can’t ignore that prices are coming down at a fast pace. So, we need to understand for ourselves whether disinflation can indeed continue.
The way we see it, there are two opposite forces to global inflation. The first is US fiscal and industrial policy which may be driving prices higher. The other force, the disinflationary one, is China.
Let’s begin with the former. The latest Personal Income release was a surprise for economists. Personal Income in the US rose 1%, the highest in a year, mostly due to generous social security benefits and resilient labour negotiating power.
US consumers have decent savings rates and benefit from a tight labour market, the result of demographics, high levels of entrepreneurship and the increasing skills gap. They also benefit from generous fiscal support.
Additionally, the US government’s 'America First' policy is inherently inflationary. By dividing the world into ‘friendly’ and ‘non-friendly’ economies, America has forced (or been forced) to de-optimise supply chains and incentivise onshoring. For the time being, this is creating higher capital expenditure (in the future it will create massive operating slack). The US forced the EU to part with cheap, Russian gas, which has thrown Germany’s economy into a recession. In return, it vowed to increase the flow of Liquified Natural Gas to Europe, in a bid to replace cheap Russian energy with more expensive, but more dependable and 'ethical' energy.
But a few weeks ago, the Biden administration decided to reduce LNG shipments to the EU, on the back of a report which suggested that LNG escaping into the environment may be as harmful as burning coal. Apart from the obvious, that geopolitical influence and ESG concerns are now competing targets, this would further decrease European productivity and increase costs.
Even as US fiscal and geopolitical policies are contributing to inflation, the world’s major deflationary force, China, is back with a vengeance.
This time last year, economists were waking up to the possibility that China’s abrupt departure from its zero-Covid strategy would mitigate what was predicted to be a global recession, a natural part of the cycle following the sharp rebound in demand after the pandemic. Fiscal easing, especially in the US also helped, and the world’s largest economy and interest rate leader avoided not only a recession but a landing altogether.
A year later, we are now seeing more good news from the world’s largest manufacturer: not only did China contribute enough to Global GDP to help with global growth, but it is also contributing to bringing inflation, and thus interest rates, down. This is happening due to a variety of factors:
It is evident that the US is taking advantage of China’s slower growth and exporting deflation to implement more fiscal policy with less fear of re-stoking inflation. For the time being, we believe that both the inflationary factors (increased capital expenditure due to ESG, re-alignment of global supply chains, US fiscal expansion) and the disinflationary ones (careful consumers, Chinese slack and re-focus on manufacturing) will continue over at least the medium-term.
However, it’s not indefinite. Cheap Chinese manufacturing has benefitted Western consumers and governments in the past. But whereas this balance used to happen within the boundaries of co-dependence and mutual understanding, it is now happening in a much more antagonistic environment.
So, our central thesis, since early 2023, that the macroeconomy will become more volatile, still stands. And in a more volatile environment, we expect central banks to exercise more caution with interest rates.
*Just to give an idea of how small these sizes are, consider that a virus is about 300nm in size. The smallest breathable particle of the COVID-19 virus is 9,300 nm in size.
George Lagarias – Chief Economist
UK Stocks | US Stocks | EU Stocks | Global Stocks | EM Stocks | Japan Stocks | Gold | GBP/USD |
↓ -0.2% | ↑ +1.2% | ↑ +0.5% | ↑ +1.1% | ↓ -0.1% | ↑ +2.2% | ↑ -2.5% | ↓ -0.1% |
all returns in GBP to Friday close | |||||||
Last week, returns across developed markets were mostly positive, with global stocks gaining +1.1% and US stocks advancing +1.2%. European stocks lagged behind, rising +0.5%, with UK stocks the main outliers, falling -0.2% over the week. Meanwhile, Japanese equities were the strongest performers recording a +2.2% gain, while emerging markets, on the other hand, were slightly negative, losing -0.1%.
Meanwhile, yields remained stable across developed bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 6.8 basis points to 4.18%, while the UK 10-year Gilt yield increased by 7.7 basis points to 4.11%. The German 10-year Bund yield also rose by +5.1 basis points to 2.41%.
The commodity market experienced significantly more volatility. Gold prices continued to soar, rising sharply to $2084/oz, a +2.5% gain over the week, while oil prices also rose by +3.1% to $79.9/barrel.
Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.4% month-on-month in January, in line with market expectations. Despite translating to a slight decline on a year-on-year basis (2.8%), it had little impact on the tone adopted by Federal Reserve officials, who continued to sound cautious in regard to interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, in Japan, interest rate hikes and the end of negative interest rates appear to be within grasp. Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata noted last week that "it's necessary to consider taking a nimble and flexible response, including on how to exit, or shift gear from the current extremely accommodative monetary policy.” However, other officials were more cautious, with Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighting that it was too early to conclude that the 2% inflation target had been sustainably met.
Investors will be keenly watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision later this week, particularly the narrative adopted by Christine Lagarde on the future of rate cuts. The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% in March, but the narrative surrounding the timeline of future rate cuts could spark volatility in financial markets.
The worst bull markets are by far the 'quiet ones'. A period of time when the index rises little by little per day, without any major breakouts and in the absence of a clear narrative. The less investors are convinced, the more excuses why it can’t last, the more persistent the rally gets. This isn’t karma. It’s about flows. The more money stays on the sidelines, the more money will go into markets...
Global equity and bond markets enter 2024 with significant momentum from the last two months of 2023 fuelled by falling inflation and subsequent dovish projections from the US Federal Reserve.
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